The Key Weapons Ukraine Wants at Pivotal Ramstein Meeting

A difficult week for Ukraine will end with the latest meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at the American Ramstein air base in Germany, where Kyiv is expecting major weapon commitments from Western allies that it hopes will help end Russia's invasion in 2023.

Representatives of some 50 nations backing Ukraine will attend the Ramstein meeting on Friday, amid much speculation that NATO states will finally provide Kyiv with a large amount of main battle tanks—most likely German-made Leopard 2s—which could prove pivotal in fresh counter-offensive operations.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will not send Berlin's own tanks—or allow allies to send their German-made MBTs—unless the U.S. also provides similar weapons. Britain's decision to send 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine apparently has not done enough to bounce Berlin into action yet.

Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told Newsweek: "I do have a lot of expectations in terms of the next Ramstein...The sooner we receive the heavier weapons and ammunition we require now, the less damage will be done to our economy."

German tanks are the priority, but are far from the only weapons on Kyiv's shopping list. Ukrainians are confident of success after almost a year of stubborn resistance, and several stunning counter-offensive victories. The West, too, appears to have invested too much in Kyiv's success to step back.

"The Western leaders understand that this year, next months, will be crucial for the whole war and seem to be ready to provide Ukraine with the necessary weaponry," Oleksandr Merezhko—a member of Ukraine's parliament and chair of the body's foreign affairs committee—told Newsweek.

"I'm sure that eventually we will receive all the necessary weaponry. The West sees that we are operating the new weapons skillfully, that we are winning, and the West will be more inclined to send us the weapons we need."

The Ramstein meeting comes at the end of a tough week in which Ukraine has been shaken by the loss of its Interior Ministry leadership in a Kyiv helicopter crash, a Russian missile strike on an apartment building in the city of Dnipro, and Russian military gains on devastated eastern front battlefields.

Main Battle Tanks

Several central and eastern European nations have already been providing Soviet-made tanks for use in Ukraine, similar to what Kyiv already had in its arsenal and the platforms captured from invading Russian forces.

France last month announced it would send AMX 10-RC light tanks to Ukraine. The U.K. became the first to commit NATO MBTs earlier this week with 14 Challenger 2s.

But Ukraine wants German-made Leopards, of which there are hundreds spread across NATO nations. Poland and Finland are among those forming a multinational coalition willing to provide Leopards, pressuring Berlin to drop its objections. France is also reportedly considering sending some of its Leclerc MBTs to help break the German deadlock.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said he hopes that Warsaw and its allies will be able to deliver as many as 100 tanks to Ukraine. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told Politico this week he "would not be surprised" if a tank delivery agreement is made on Friday.

Ukraine's former defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk told Newsweek: "Tanks are an assault weapon, and would be a weapon for counter-offensives. They're top of the list, because Ukraine wants to engage in counter-offensive operations as soon as possible."

Merezhko said he is hopeful that the decision to supply tanks has already been made. "The question is only about the quantity," he said, noting that General Valery Zaluzhny—the head of Ukraine's armed forces—has said Kyiv needs 300 MBTs for successful counter-offensive operations.

In a joint statement released Thursday, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that "the improvement of the provision of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with modern armoured vehicles and increasing their fire and manoeuvrability capabilities with the help of Western tanks is one of the most pressing and urgent needs."

"We are addressing our appeal to the states that have Leopard 2 tanks in service," the officials said. "We will use these weapons responsibly and exclusively for the purposes of protecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders."

Armored Vehicles

Armored vehicles are also vital for Ukrainian counter-offensives, allowing attacking units to move in relative safety at speed and engage lightly-armored targets. Ukrainian forces have already impressed with their dynamic, small-unit tactics, and modern Western armored vehicles will only improve their performance.

Zagorodnyuk told Newsweek that armored vehicles would certainly be part of Friday's discussions given their utility in offensive operations. The U.S. is reportedly preparing a new aid package including 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles—in addition to those already committed last month—and, for the first time, almost 100 Stryker armored combat vehicles.

Ukraine is also in line to receive 50 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles from Sweden—which will also be sending Archer artillery systems; more American mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles, known as MRAPs; 200 Canadian Senator armored personnel carriers; and "hundreds more armored and protected vehicles" from the U.K., including the Bulldog armored personnel carrier. The U.K. will also be sending AS-90 self-propelled howitzers.

Long-Range Missiles

The U.S. is still refusing to send Ukraine the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System—known colloquially as the ATACMS—which can be fired from Western-made multiple launch rocket systems, including the American HIMARS which has had such a devastating impact via deep strikes on Russian positions.

Ukrainian leaders have not dropped, and will not drop, their desire for the ATACMS, which would allow Kyiv's forces to hit targets out to 190 miles. This would imperil Russian supply hubs, logistics routes, and troop concentrations supporting the Russian occupation of the Crimean peninsula; a key war goal for Kyiv.

Colin Kahl, the under-secretary of defense for policy, said this week that Washington D.C. and Kyiv are in constant discussions about augmenting Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.

"There is a need to reach beyond the front line and, without going into details, I will say that we acknowledge this need in the current phase," he told journalists at the Ukraine Media Centre during a visit to Kyiv this week. "We should think about how to help Ukraine overcome this challenge. But I will not resolve in advance what kind of system it might be."

"On the ATACMS issue, I think we're kind of at the 'agree to disagree' position on that," Kahl said.

Several NATO allies are pushing for Ukraine to receive the longest-range munitions available. Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu told Newsweek last month it is time for Kyiv to get long-range strike capabilities "without any caveats."

The next U.S. aid package will reportedly include Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) with a range of almost 95 miles. The munitions can be fired from the NATO-supplied MLRS systems already in theater.

Anti-Aircraft Systems

Russia's missile offensive has plunged Ukraine into periodic blackouts amid freezing winter temperatures, further undermining the already fragile national economy. The barrages have intensified Kyiv's calls for modern air defense systems.

The attacks have prompted the U.S., Germany, and the Netherlands to send one American-made Patriot surface-to-air battery each; by the far the most expensive system so far provided to Ukraine.

Air defense will be a key part of Friday's discussions, Zagorodnyuk said, given that Russian missiles are still hitting Ukrainian cities, most recently destroying an apartment building in the central city of Dnipro killing at least 45 people.

"The Russians are trying to destroy everything which is possible to destroy," Ustenko said. "When these people are hurting our and targeting our infrastructure, there is no doubt that it has very negative consequences for the economic performance of the country."

"These attacks are extremely costly," he added. "Everything related to weapons to ammunition is the main priority."

Ammunition

Ammunition—artillery shells, in particular—is a constant need for both the Ukrainians and the Russians. Much of the war has been characterized by relatively static artillery duels, the side with more mobile and better supplied guns often coming off best.

"They will be talking about ammunition," Zagorodnyuk said of those attending the Ramstein meeting on Friday. "This war is extremely intense in ammunition consumption."

Ukrainian gunners, increasingly outfitted with NATO artillery pieces, need a constant and massive supply of 155mm rounds to keep their weapons firing. U.S. manufacturers have been caught flat-footed, though are now planning a dramatic boost in production to meet increased demand.

In the meantime, the U.S. and its allies are turning to existing stockpiles. The New York Times reported this week that the Pentagon is sourcing hundreds of thousands of 155mm shells from stockpiles in Israel and South Korea, which had been kept on hand for use in case of sudden regional conflicts.