Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz is favored to win the crunch Pennsylvania Senate election on Tuesday, according to a poll concluded on Thursday.
Oz, a Donald Trump ally, is going up against Democrat John Fetterman, Pennsylvania's lieutenant governor.
A Trafalgar Group poll of 1,097 registered voters, conducted between November 1 and 3, put Oz on 48 percent versus 46 percent for Fetterman, giving the GOP candidate a two-point lead.
Analysis by polling website FiveThirtyEight still favors Fetterman, who they found has a 53 percent chance of winning, but this is a dramatic fall from September when Fetterman had an 83 percent chance of victory on the site.
On Saturday, President Joe Biden, and former presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama, are all due to campaign in Pennsylvania.
Biden and Obama will headline a Democrat rally in Philadelphia, while Trump hosts a Republican event in Latrobe.
Fetterman's polling has slumped since a contentious debate with Oz in Harrisburg on October 25, which political analyst Sean Trende described as "an utter disaster for him."
The Democrat, who is recovering from a stroke that happened in May, at times struggled to answer questions and was reliant on a teleprompter.
On Thursday, Fetterman did pick up a coveted endorsement from Oprah Winfrey, which the Democrat described as "an honor." His opponent Oz started his career as a television health expert on The Oprah Winfrey Show.
Dr Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek that Oz is profiting from a national focus on the economy and perceived Democratic radicalism.
"It's likely Oz is benefiting from national trends in the electorate seeming to favor Republicans in the final stretch," Gift said. "Americans are zeroing in on what matters most to them, that's inflation, and so other priorities are starting to fade into the backdrop.
"In ad after ad, Oz has also blitzed Pennsylvanians with a consistent message that his opponent has had trouble shaking: that Fetterman is a fringe leftist who's too far outside the mainstream," added Gift.
"Fair or unfair, being tagged with the 'Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez/Bernie Sanders/extremist' label is likely to galvanize opposition in broad swaths of central PA, while depressing support in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg."
Dr Julie Norman, an American politics expert who also teaches at University College London, told Newsweek that the October 25 TV debate was a key turning point.
She said: "The contest for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat was always likely to be close, but polls indicate that Fetterman and Oz are now in a dead heat going into Election Day.
"Oz (who was trailing by over 10 points in the summer) has steadily made gains over the course of the fall, but it was the televised debate on October 25 that fully closed the gap.
"Oz seemed fully in his element, while even many of those sympathetic to Fetterman's health situation were less than reassured by his performance," Norman said.
"As a key swing-state, the prize of the Pennsylvania seat will be a crucial boon to either party that could tip the balance of the Senate."
Newsweek has contacted representatives of John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz for comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
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James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more
