A new poll showing that Joe Biden is losing to Donald Trump in key swing states is sending "tremors" through the Democratic party, according to a former Barack Obama advisor.
Polls published by The New York Times and Siena College on November 5 showed voters are backing Trump, Biden's likeliest Republican rival, by margins of four to 10 percentage points in five of six important election battleground states one year before the 2024 election.
The states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, the sixth battleground state, by two percentage points.
If the results in the poll were the same by the time of the election next November, Trump would win more than 300 Electoral College votes. 270 is needed to become president.
Newsweek has contacted Joe Biden, the Democratic party, and the White House by email for comment.
David Axelrod, a political strategist who worked on Obama's 2008 and 2012 campaigns and served as a senior advisor in his administration responded to the polling and said it would spark "legitimate concern."
He wrote on X, formerly Twitter: "It's very late to change horses; a lot will happen in the next year that no one can predict & Biden's team says his resolve to run is firm.
"He's defied CW [conventional wisdom] before but this will send tremors of doubt thru the party--not 'bed-wetting,' but legitimate concern."
The poll showed that by a 59 percent to 37 percent margin, voters trusted Trump over Biden on the economy. Voters preferred Trump on immigration by 12 points, on national security by 12 points, and on the Israel-Palestine conflict by 11 points.
Age has been a big discussion point in the run-up to the election, with commentators criticizing Biden for his history of verbal gaffes and Democrats likewise pointing to gaffes made by his Republican rival.
In the poll, 71 percent said Biden, who will turn 81 this month, was "too old" to be an effective president, including 54 percent of Biden's own supporters.
Only 39 percent of the electorate viewed Trump, aged 77, as too old, and 19 percent of his own supporters.
Axelrod said that age was the Democrat leader's "biggest liability."
Axelrod appeared to question whether Biden should run for re-election at all, saying that while "there also is risk associated with changing course now, as there is little time left for a primary campaign...there is a lot of leadership talent in the Democratic Party, poised to emerge."
"The stakes of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore," he added, warning that Trump is a "dangerous, unhinged demagogue".
He said: "Only Joe Biden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?"
The New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted among 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from October 22 to November 3, 2023. The margin of sampling error for each state is between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points.
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Kate Plummer is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs, and ... Read more