Joe Biden's Chances of Losing Michigan Primary as He Faces Revolt

Michigan voters are heading to the polls to make their choice in the Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, as some progressives organized a movement to vote "uncommitted" to send a message to President Joe Biden about his support for Israel.

Biden has faced scrutiny from some Democrats over his staunch support for Israel amid its ongoing conflict with Hamas. After Hamas launched an attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, Biden backed Israel's right to defend itself and has voiced support for increasing aid. While the president has also expressed concerns about the number of civilian deaths among Palestinians amid Israel's ground invasion of Gaza, critics say he hasn't gone far enough to ensure civilians are protected, urging him to call for a ceasefire.

Pro-Palestinian critics of Biden are hoping to send him a warning in Michigan's Democratic primary this week by voting "uncommitted." The movement has earned the support of high-profile progressives, including Palestinian American Representative Rashida Tlaib, who represents parts of the Detroit area in Congress, and former Ohio state Senator Nina Turner, a popular commentator among progressives.

A new poll from Emerson College sheds light on how successful these efforts may be.

The survey, conducted among 1,000 registered voters from February 20 to 24, found that only 9 percent of respondents said they plan to vote "uncommitted." Biden received support from 75 percent of respondents, while about 5 percent backed Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips.

Notably, among the 12 percent of voters who remained unsure who they would vote for, 62 percent said they were leaning toward "uncommitted," according to the survey.

Young voters are also more likely to vote "uncommitted," as nearly 23 percent of voters in the 18 to 29 range said they plan to do so, according to the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out to Biden's campaign for comment via email.

Matt Grossmann, the director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University, told Newsweek Monday morning that polling on the uncommitted option may be difficult because voters may not know what they are being asked.

"It also might be tough to be committed enough to show up to vote uncommitted. But the uncommitted option has received votes before—for example, when [Barack] Obama was not on the ballot because Michigan jumped in line in 2008," he said.

He said Biden should be concerned about Arab American voters in November but noted some have already been shifting to Republicans due to LGBTQ+ and school-related matters.

The most liberal Democratic primary voters typically "find their way back to their side by November," he said.

"So there is a block or Arab American swing voters who could move toward Republicans over Gaza, but it is not the same as the people loudest on social media," he said.

Thomas Ivacko, executive director of the Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy at the University of Michigan, told Newsweek on Monday he is not surprised that 9 percent of voters plan to vote "uncommitted," as Biden has easily won victories in other primary states thus far.

"The core of that protest vote is likely to be among Arab American citizens, who make up about 2 percent of Michigan's population. Young voters also are more likely than older voters to register this protest vote, but of course, young voters make up a relatively small portion of the electorate," he said.

Still, he said Biden should be concerned about "soft support" in Michigan ahead of November.

"If Biden loses 10 percent of his supporters from 2020 that could very well be enough to tip Michigan back to Trump, depending on overall turnout," he said. "In addition, in 2020 there were statewide ballot initiative items on Michigan's ballot, such as protecting abortion rights, that very likely helped drive a surge of democratic turnout, and it doesn't appear that will be the case in 2024."

Biden has faced backlash from some Muslim voters over his support for Israel, and Michigan notably has a notable Muslim population in areas such as Dearborn, represented by Tlaib. Michigan also serves as a crucial swing state in the general election, and the backlash has sparked concerns about his ability to win the state in November if enough of these voters turn against him.

Tlaib, a progressive member of the "squad," is among the most prominent supporters of voting "uncommitted," saying earlier in February that it is important "to create a voting block, something that is a bullhorn to say enough is enough.

"This is the way you can raise our voices. Don't make us even more invisible. Right now, we feel completely neglected and just unseen by our government. If you want us to be louder, then come here and vote uncommitted," she said.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, said there is some degree of uncertainty in the Michigan primary during an interview on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday.

"I'm not sure what we're going to see on Tuesday, to tell you the truth," Whitmer said. "I know that we've got this primary and we will see differences of opinion. I'm just not sure what to expect."