It's the Economy, Stupid (Again). GOP Candidates: Give the Voters What They Want | Opinion

We're wearing wide-leg jeans, Doc Martens, and Nirvana T-shirts, but that's not the only way the '90s are back. In 2023, as in many election seasons before it, James Carville's 1992 aphorism applies: "It's the economy, stupid." Again.

In 2022, the economy was the top issue for voters. By spring of this year, the answer was the same. And on the eve of the first Republican presidential primary debate in Milwaukee, WI, polling shows the economy holding steady as the No. 1 issue for voters, with 32 percent citing the economy vs. 28 percent for the next most important issue, preserving democracy.

There is nothing more kitchen-table than a family's ability to put food on the kitchen table.

Yet, shockingly little coverage of the looming election fight is devoted to this concern, as news of new indictments and former President Donald Trump's personality dominate news cycle after news cycle.

Here's a hint for GOP candidates vying for attention on a stage with eight candidates tonight: Give the voters what they want.

The media too often downplays the real pocketbook punishment Americans are suffering, even as 50+ percent of them say they think the economy is getting worse. The industry's penchant for protecting Biden from bad news and catering to an educated investor class feeling less pain leads the media to speak about "soft landings" and low unemployment and my recent favorite, a "richcession." News stories are upbeat about inflation falling off by small increments without noting the Everest-like climb we've been on the past two years.

Biden himself is happy to run with these sunnier metrics, rolling out the concept of Bidenomics this summer to much ado but without much perspective. To use another aphorism, if one should hang a lantern on one's problems, this is the equivalent of making a bonfire with the lamp posts. You've certainly brought attention to the issue, but now a lot of people are probably going to notice the vandalism.

Voters know about the ostensibly good numbers, but the numbers they feel on a regular basis are the ones at the grocery store and gas pump.

Chief Moody's economist Mark Zandi addressed the August Consumer Price Index report on the app formerly known as Twitter. Sandwiched between optimistic takes on the slow increase and good trend lines was this stark observation: "Due to the high inflation, the typical household spent $202 more in a July than they did a year ago to buy the same goods and services. And they spent $709 more than they did 2 years ago."

For perspective, roughly $700 is also the monthly payment on a $150,000 home at a 4-percent interest rate. If a family in West Virginia or Mississippi, where the average home price is about $150K, is spending a full mortgage payment a month more on household goods, that is not something all the "soft landings" in the world are going to distract from. Oil prices hit an 8-month high in July and, of course, those 4-percent interest rates are a thing of the past. Credit card debt just topped $1 trillion, as Americans use debt to cope, and delinquencies are predictably rising.

These are the things voters notice, particularly Republican voters and Republican-leaning independents, 77 percent of whom think inflation is a "very big problem."

Trump could theoretically talk about his solid pre-pandemic economic record as President—lower interest rates, gas prices, low inflation! For all his electoral risks and unfavorables, 54 percent of voters told pollsters this year "Trump had done a better job handling the economy than Biden." But he refuses to tout this because he is devoted to talking about the criminal charges against him in four indictments and rehashing the 2020 election.

The Democratic incumbent is advertising the gap between what the elites feel is a good economy and what average voters actually feel in their daily lives. The GOP front-runner is advertising the gap between what he cares about and what average voters care about.

Right in that gap is where GOP candidates should be making a pitch, and it just so happens the party has an edge. Pew showed a 12-point lead in trust of Republicans on the issue of the economy this summer, with the idea of "growing the economy" resonating more with voters than the Democrats' message, which many voters said relied too much on "cultural and social issues," according to a Democratic polling memo meant to sound the alarm on this issue.

Republicans held a similar edge on the economy in 2022, which was the No. 1 issue for voters in the midterms, too. That trust got them nowhere in places where the party didn't offer a viable alternative speaking to voters' needs. Tonight, these candidates have a chance to show they won't make that mistake twice.

Mary Katharine Ham is a nationally prominent journalist, author, and frequent speaker on college campuses on the issue of free speech. She is a mom and UGA football fan who lives in Virginia with her husband, four kids, and an energetic Belgian Mal named Scout.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.