India Manages Delicate Balance as Modi Tilts Towards Israel

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was prompt and vocal in expressing solidarity with Israel after the Hamas attacks in October, indicating a subtle departure from India's previous stance of neutrality.

But the world's most populous nation is nonetheless trying to manage a delicate balance: On the one hand it sees natural alignment with Israel in a 'battle on terror' similar to the one it faces against a cross-border insurgency from Pakistan. On the other, are the pressures from its large Muslim minority most of which harbours sympathy for the Palestinians and its commitment to a non-aligned foreign policy.

Modi's message after the October 7 attacks by Hamas resonated.

"Deeply shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel. Our thoughts and prayers are with the innocent victims and their families. We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour," he wrote.

But the calculations have shifted after the attacks that killed some 1,400 Israelis have been followed by an Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip that has killed more than 11,000 Palestinians, according to figures from the Hamas-run health ministry.

The right wing digital realm in predominantly Hindu India aligns with the government's narrative, drawing parallels between Israel's predicament and India's internal security. Indians on social media are as vocal as anyone in backing Israel's war against Hamas, even as support in many Western countries shifts in the opposite direction.

But the mood is mixed on the streets in India, where some protests have also favored the Palestinians.

India's traditional opposition to Israel's actions at the United Nations contrasts with its current stance even as it remains supportive of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and calls for adherence to humanitarian laws. India's recent abstentions at the UN on related resolutions point to a nuanced recalibration of its foreign policy, balancing traditional stances with contemporary strategic interests.

"We have strongly condemned the horrific terrorist attack on Israel," Arindam Bagchi of the Ministry of External Affairs stated in a media briefing. "There was also issue of Palestine, and on that, we have reiterated our position in favour of direct negotiations for establishing a two-state solution. We have also expressed our concern at the civilian casualties and the humanitarian situation. We would urge the strict observance of international humanitarian law."

When to Name Hamas?

In an unmissable sign of the shift, however, India's abstention on a UN resolution for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, without naming the latter, reflects a diplomatic strategy.

India did back a failed Canadian amendment to condemn Hamas' attacks, signaling a balance between traditional support for the Palestinians and current geopolitical alliances. However, the U.S. criticized the omission of Hamas' name in the resolution as an "omission of evil". India's stance shows an effort to maintain relations with various international parties.

Later, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on November 4th, spoke to his Israeli counterpart Eli Cohen and posted on X, "Reiterated our firm commitment to countering terrorism, observance of international humanitarian law and for a two-state solution,".

Modi had also extended his condolences to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for the loss of lives at Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza during a phone call. President Abbas appreciated India's support and its position on the issue.

The hospital incident was diplomatically fraught, however. What Hamas officials described as an Israeli attack was denied by Israel. U.S. intelligence agreed with the Israeli assessment that it resulted from a misfiring Palestinian rocket.

India also dispatched a humanitarian aid flight to Egypt with 6.5 tonnes of medical supplies and 32 tonnes of disaster relief materials for the Palestinians.

What the Ruling Party Says

For MJ Akbar, former Minister of State for External Affairs, India's stance remains focused on a negotiated two-state solution.

Speaking exclusively to Newsweek on cross-border terrorism and India's statement on attacks on civilians in Israel he said, "as far as the initial statement is concerned, India has consistently condemned it. And this is after India's own experience of cross border terrorism. It has set forth that any attempt of cross border terrorism, that inflicts violence upon women, children, non-combatants, civilians, etc. is entirely unacceptable."

Addressing questions about the influence of right-wing ideology on India's foreign policy under Modi, Akbar said, "In foreign policy, there is no right-wing and left-wing; there is just India's interest." He said there was complexity and the need for a nuanced approach that goes beyond binary distinctions, highlighting India's diplomatic relationships that work across conflicts and maintain ties with all involved parties.

Akbar underscored the strength of India's relations with Israel and Gulf countries, noting significant advances in diplomatic and economic partnerships over the past decade. "The relationship with Israel has stood the test of time. Simultaneously, I can say with great confidence that in the last 10 years, our relationships with the Gulf countries have risen to an unprecedented level."

Pro-Palestinian protests in India have provided a different test. According to The Associated Press, India has barred solidarity protests with the Palestinians in Muslim majority Kashmir, though there have also been demonstrations in other parts of the country. Akbar dismissed talk of restrictions on protests.

"I had maybe a 90 minute conversation with the head of the Jamaat recently over coffee and he led one of those protests, and I didn't hear him once say that there was a crackdown on anything. So there are small protests in India, and people have a right to have their own viewpoint. Some people find it difficult to take in the current situation, other people think they have a different viewpoint. We are a democracy. Everybody has a right to their viewpoint," he said.

Opposition Speaks

Manish Tewari, Indian Member of Parliament and former Minister for Information & Broadcasting, reiterated the opposition Indian National Congress (INC) Party's call for an immediate end to hostilities and the beginning of substantive negotiations. He critiques the Narendra Modi government's approach to the conflict, voicing concerns over what he deems a disproportionate response by Israel in Gaza.

Tewari played down the conflict's impact on India's domestic electoral politics, however, emphasizing that Indian elections are traditionally dominated by local issues. Tewari told Newsweek, "We condemned the terror attack on the seventh of October 2023. The response of Israel is disproportionate. We have called repeatedly for an end of hostilities and for substantive negotiations to begin. The two-state solution is the only sustainable enduring paradigm which can bring about peace. The only policy prescription is that the Israeli escalation in Gaza Strip must stop because the level of civilian casualties is of humungous order."

National Security

Pankaj Saran, India's former Deputy National Security Advisor, explained India's nuanced stance towards the conflict to Newsweek in relation to its own regional security issues and cautioned against any oversimplified comparisons with India-Pakistan tensions.

Saran underscored that while the conflicts might share elements of religious friction and terror tactics, their historical contexts and political landscapes differ significantly. He asserted that the deep-seated history of the Israeli-Palestinians situation renders any direct comparison with the Indo-Pakistan tension overly simplistic, saying, "I mean, in the sense that the Israel-Palestine conflict is much more serious. I don't think we can draw very easy or simplistic parallels."

Saran said India had a firm policy against terrorism and that this was the way in which the government viewed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while noting that a major difference for Palestinians was their fight for a homeland.

Looking at the potential impact in India, Saran said that from an Indian perspective the religious dimension would take a back seat.

"It's actually more about terror, and less about religion. There is a similarity, on the use of terror...there is always a fear...that Pakistan may draw the wrong lessons from this conflict (sic)", he said.

Saran said pro-Palestinian protests were kept in check to avoid any form of radicalization.

"This government is committed to not allow this poison of radicalization and extremism to take over. India simply cannot afford to have radicalization of any form whether it is Hindu or Muslim, or any other," he said.

India's stance over the conflict also underlines its shifting role on the global stage with its closer alignment with Washington on that issue — though not necessarily on others. Priorities for India remain in its own neighborhood given the friction with both Pakistan and China.

India says its evolving foreign policy echoes its resolve to combat terrorism and its efforts to maintain a secular stance in international disputes. The solid Indo-US ties also reflect a shared understanding of global dynamics, despite different strategic positions on many issues.

"India is placed differently. It is certainly not a global power. It has other compulsions. But I think that the Indians have been able to explain the positions they took," Saran said.

Correction: 11/10/23 at 11:35 a.m. ET. Corrects former position held by Pankaj Saran