It's Donald Trump's party, and other Republicans like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are just living in it. The former president's runaway victory in last night's Iowa caucuses and his overall dominance in the GOP presidential primary so far was just another data point bolstering this now-undeniable conclusion. And despite Trump's baggage, all signs suggest he still has a good chance of beating President Joe Biden in November as the Republican nominee.
But at what cost? With its continued embrace of Trump, the GOP is burning bridges with today's young people, perhaps permanently. It's turning off an entire generation of voters who will form a crucial part of the electorate for decades to come. Heck, even young die-hard Republicans aren't on the Trump train.
Exit polls show that only 21 percent of young Republican caucus goers in Iowa voted for Trump, with DeSantis winning 35 percent of this demographic and Haley coming in second. Even long-shot candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who received less than 8 percent of the overall vote and has since dropped out, tied Trump's share of Gen Z voters. Meanwhile, looking at the national GOP primary electorate, Republican voters 18 to 34 is the only age group where Trump doesn't have majority support.
And when you look at Gen Z overall, not just young Republicans who are a minority within the generation, there's simply no escaping the reality: Young people cannot stand Donald Trump. They want nothing to do with him, and are often turned off to any ideas they associate with such a uniquely distasteful figure.
Why?
Well, Gen Z is deeply concerned about climate change. Donald Trump falsely calls it a Chinese hoax.
Gen Z is deeply concerned about racism and sexism. Donald Trump has made too many racially charged comments to count, was found liable for sexually abusing a woman in court, and bragged about grabbing women without their consent on camera.
Gen Z is deeply concerned about democracy. Donald Trump tried to overturn an election he legitimately lost.
You get the picture.
Yet there's no reason that young people—many of whom are sick of "wokeness," don't want socialism, still believe in free speech, and so on—can't ever be reached by Republican candidates and messaging. But it's simply never, ever going to happen at a large national scale while the GOP's dominated by The Donald.
As a member of Gen Z, I can tell you first hand that many of my peers have been turned off to right-leaning ideas they might otherwise have been open to because they associate them with Trump Republicanism. One of the most common retorts I heard in response to any center-right argument I made on my college campus as a student, and still constantly hear in response to any center-right argument I espouse in my YouTube or TikTok content, is some variation of "but Trump!" Part of that is closemindedness, yes, but it's also naturally how humans think and a difficult hurdle to overcome.
Gen Z voting for Democrats isn't predestined, they've been pushed into their arms through their perceived lack of a viable alternative. This may also partially explain why, while consistently voting for them, Gen Z doesn't actually view Democrats all that favorably.
But it doesn't have to be this way. Even a controversial, firebrand Republican like Ron DeSantis was still able to win 44 percent of 18 to 24 year old voters in his 2022 gubernatorial reelection, campaigning on an anti-lockdown, low-tax, pro-freedom, anti-woke agenda. Now just imagine what Republicans like him could do without the baggage of Trumpism hanging over the party.
Conventional wisdom suggests that generations inevitably become more conservative as they age. While there's a grain of truth to that and it's certainly been true in the past, there's also extensive research that shows voters are heavily influenced for life by the politics of their young adult years. So unless something drastically changes, Republicans are going to struggle mightily when the Boomers die off and today's youth voters become tomorrow's base.
Some honest Trump supporters might acknowledge this reality but argue that Trump's short-term political momentum is worth long-term trade-offs. But is it?
Yes, Republicans want to unseat Biden and institute "America First" policies. But DeSantis and Haley both beat Biden in head-to-head matchups by similar or larger margins than Trump does in many polls, and, at least with DeSantis, it's hard to see much daylight between the policy agenda he and Trump 2.0 would enact.
Of course, no one beats Trump when it comes to "triggering the libs" and trolling the media. But a party that's willing to inflict generational damage on its own future prospects simply to thumb its nose at its opponents is a party that deserves the losses surely awaiting it.
Brad Polumbo (@Brad_Polumbo) is an independent journalist, YouTuber, and co-founder of BASEDPolitics.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
