Water levels are fluctuating as Hurricane Idalia is anticipated to strengthen on Wednesday as it travels northeast through the Gulf of Mexico with more ferocity.
Winds hit as high as 80 miles per hour Tuesday morning and are expected to surpass 110 mph on Wednesday, with the potential of the Category 4 or higher hurricane prognosticated to inundate Florida's western coastline with approximately 12 feet of storm surge.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis addressed Floridians on Tuesday morning as over 20 statewide counties already issued evacuation orders, including mandatory evacuations for those living in Citrus, Dixie, Gulf, Lafayette, Levy, Pasco Pinellas, Suwannee and Taylor counties. Gas stations are already low on fuel.
Joel Cline, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS), told Newsweek on Tuesday that charted water levels are routine and usually updated at the top of every hour for the most recent data.
"You see fluctuations in this [developing hurricane] and there's several things that are changing," Cline said. "Almost all the time, you do not get waves that match the wind direction. They're often out of kilter, which is maybe what you might not expect but the storm is moving forward translationally and then there's the rotational speed that that deals with the intensity of the system, the highest winds not sustained, or whatever.
"And then you have to keep in mind that none of that is static; all that is changing. The system can speed up, it can slow down its forward motion and it can also gain intensity."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is continually updating preliminary data on tides and currents, as well as observed and predicted water levels in the hours and days ahead.
NOAA describes water levels exceeding 2 feet as causing minor flooding; close to 4 feet is moderate flooding; and about 5 feet is major flooding. These particular figures are for Fort Myers but are modified for different cities.
Cities already experiencing drastic conditions include Naples, where observed water levels have nearly hit the 3-foot mark. The city's NWS station may already be experiencing some degree of flooding, according to a notice posted online.
St. Petersburg, which could experience flooding within the next 48 hours, hit its highest water level mark today at nearly 1 ½ feet.
Cedar Key, another coastal city north of Tampa, could experience high-tide flooding and its NWS station is under a hurricane warning. Levels have exceeded 1 ½ feet but are projected to remain steady in the hours ahead.
Clearwater Beach levels hit an observed high of 2.27 feet and are predicted to slightly subside. That NWS station is experiencing significantly elevated water levels.
It's the same situation in Key West, where water levels are near 1 ½ feet.
A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) forecast published Monday in a "worst case scenario" states that heavy rains, winds and storm surges could have detrimental effects on the Florida coastlines—including the potential to cause 100 percent of the dunes and beaches along the state's west coast, from Bonita Springs to Clearwater, to experience some level of erosion.
About 91 percent of Florida's dunes from those two cities could be overwashed, which is when sand can be moved and deposited inland, negatively affecting coastal landscapes while blocking roadways. Those areas could also become more vulnerable to future storms.
"Our current coastal change forecast is indicating Idalia could produce coastal change impacts to beaches and dunes along the Gulf coast of Florida similar in magnitude to those Hurricane Ian caused last year," said Kara Doran, a USGS oceanographer and leader of the USGS Coastal Change Hazards Storm Team.
"Given the current forecast track and intensity of Idalia, there will be high water levels along the coast from storm surge and waves that will likely cause severe coastal change and hazards for coastal communities."
Water temperatures have reached levels above 86 degrees Fahrenheit in certain spots off Florida's western coast as well, according to NOAA's National Data Buoy Center which uses water surface technology to track changes.
Cline said that while water temperature is a necessary condition for hurricanes, there's more to it such as how the center of the forms and how it is expanded by wind and air pressure.
"Think of it like a chimney, if the chimney is tilted," Cline said. "The fire and the bottom goes out, smoke comes down to the room and is perfectly straight up and down.
"So, if you're having wind shear aloft, then you've tilted your chimney. And you can exhaust all this mass that's coming together at the bottom of the atmosphere or the lower levels of the atmosphere."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Nick Mordowanec is a Newsweek reporter based in Michigan. His focus is reporting on Ukraine and Russia, along with social ... Read more
