Donald Trump Stung by Double Polling Blow

Two polls have suggested Donald Trump will lose the presidential election, in the latest swing in what has been a tight race so far.

In March, the former leader and the incumbent President Joe Biden won enough primary races to secure, respectively, the Republican and Democratic nominations in the 2024 presidential election. Polls have so far shown that the results will be tight as the pair are statistically tied in most surveys or enjoying only marginal leads.

However, two recent polls have suggested Trump is now lagging, marginally. In one poll of 1,046 adults by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research, 40 percent of all voters said they would vote for Biden and 38 percent would choose Trump in a race in which independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was included.

When only likely voters were polled, 44 percent said they would vote for Biden and 39 percent for Trump.

The poll also found that in a two-person race where likely voters were polled, 47 percent would vote for Biden and 46 percent would vote for Trump.

However in a two-person race when all voters were polled, Trump and Biden were tied with 44 percent of the vote each.

The poll was conducted between April 26 and April 28. The margin of error is +/- 3 percent.

Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 856 registered voters, which closed on Tuesday, found that 40 percent of registered voters would vote for Biden compared with 39 percent who would vote for Trump. However, the one percent lead is down from a four-point lead Biden had in a poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos earlier in the month.

The survey has a 3 percentage point margin of error.

Newsweek contacted Trump's campaign representative by email to comment on this story.

Meanwhile, other recent polls have shown Trump is in the lead.

A CNN poll of 1,212 people conducted by SSRS, an independent research company, between April 18 and 23 found that 49 percent of registered voters supported Trump, while 43 percent supported Biden, for instance.

An April poll by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult also indicated that Trump was polling ahead in six key swing states, by 6 points overall.

As these swing states may determine the result of the election, these polls are arguably more important than national polls.

Thomas Gift, who heads the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, previously told Newsweek that reading too much into polls was "a fool's errand."

"Polls are so variable at this point that the only consistent insight we can glean from them is that Biden and Trump are neck and neck—not only nationally but in key swing states," he said. "Trying to read too much into any one poll, or even set of polls, five months out from the election is a fool's errand."

The presidential election will take place on November 5.