Democrats are losing voters in two Pennsylvania counties, according to voting registration data from Pennsylvania's Department of State (DOS).
A Newsweek analysis of current voting registration in the battleground state shows that there are 18,080 fewer registered Democratic voters in Erie and Northampton counties than in 2020.
In recent weeks, Pennsylvania's Republican candidates for Senate and governor have managed to narrow the leads that their Democratic opponents have held for much of the election cycle. While Democrat Josh Shapiro is still projected to beat Republican Doug Mastriano for governor, the double-digit advantage John Fetterman had has been whittled to about 2 points by GOP candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz in their U.S. Senate race.
The closely watched contests in Pennsylvania, and Fetterman's troubling polling, suggests that the Democratic Party will need as many voters as they can get if they want to flip the seat being vacated by Senator Pat Toomey.
Erie County, unlike its neighboring counties in northwestern Pennsylvania, tends to lean Democratic in statewide and national elections. But it has become increasingly competitive and is considered a bellwether county.
Former President Donald Trump narrowly won Erie with 48.01 percent of the vote in 2016, then President Joe Biden narrowly flipped the county with 49.66 percent just four years later. Since the 2020 election, there are 14,675 fewer registered Democrats in Erie County.
There has also been a decrease in GOP voters in the county, although by numbers much smaller than those seen among Democratic voters. Registration for the Republican Party has dropped 6,250 since 2020, There are currently 17,121 voters in Erie County registered as independents. The state DOS did not track the number of independent voters in 2020.
Northampton County paints a different picture. The county, which has been identified as one of the state's swing counties in recent decades, experienced a slight increase of 131 voters who registered as Republican, along with the decrease of 3,405 Democrats over the last two years. There are 31,696 registered independents in the county.
In 2016, Trump carried Northampton County with 49.62 percent of the vote. Biden narrowly flipped the county with almost the same percentage in 2020.
Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright cautioned that voter registration doesn't always tell the story, noting that there was also an increase in Democratic registration just months earlier in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
"I don't read too much into [voter registration]. What I do read somewhat into is participation. Registration is one thing, participation is another," Seawright told Newsweek.
Susanne Schwarz, an assistant professor of political science at Swarthmore College, pointed out that Northampton and Erie counties are increasingly moving away from their urban identity.
Schwarz told Newsweek that its typical for Democrats to do worse with voters in ex-urban and rural counties, while they tend to do better in suburban counties. So, even though Democratic registration is down in the two key counties, Democrats could find enough votes to win the Senate seat if they focus on gaining ground in suburban and urban counties.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek reporter based in New York City. Her focus is reporting on U.S. and world politics. ... Read more
