Democrats Could Actually Gain House Seats in This Wild Scenario

It is less than a week until voters across the U.S. head to the polls for crunch midterm elections, with control over both chambers of Congress and numerous state level positions up for grabs.

The Republicans are firm favorites to take control of the House of Representatives, where they currently have 212 seats, versus 220 for the Democrats.

According to the latest polling analysis by election website FiveThirtyEight, released on Wednesday, the GOP has an 84 percent chance of taking control of the House, versus a 16 percent chance of the Democrats holding on.

But, while Republicans gains are widely expected, bookies are offering odds on a shock result that sees the Democrats increase their number of House representatives.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on October 25
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi delivers remarks to the press before her meeting with Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the U.S. Capitol October 25, 2022 in Washington, DC. Bookies are offering odds on the... Drew Angerer/GETTY

British bookmakers Betfair is offering odds of 15/1 on the Democrats gaining seats in the House, meaning a $1 stake would win you $15 if this takes place.

Whilst FiveThirtyEight analysis suggests the GOP have a clear House advantage, for the Senate there is a "dead heat" between the two main parties. The site gives the GOP a 52 percent chance of taking the Senate, versus a 48 percent chance of the Democrats retaining control.

Currently, there are 50 Senators caucusing with each party in the Senate, with the Democrats having a wafer-thin overall majority thanks to the vice president's tie-breaking vote.

The Democrats are favored to win three key battleground states, according to the final The New York Times' midterm assessment, with the two parties tied in a fourth.

According to the survey, released on Monday, inclumbant Democrats Mark Kelly of Arizona and Raphael Warnock of Georgia are on track to hold their Senate seats, whilst John Fetterman is polling slightly ahead of Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania.

In Nevada, Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, and GOP challenger Adam Laxalt are polling level on 47 percent each.

Betfair is also offering odds on surprise landslide wins for the Democrats and Republicans, should one party perform much better than expected.

The odds of the GOP taking 55 or more Senate seats stands at 18/1, according to the bookmaker, versus a whopping 400/1 for the Democrats winning by the same margin.

Betfair spokesperson Katie Baylis told Newsweek: "The Republicans are big odds-on favorites with Betfair at 8/15 to secure a majority in the senate.

"There are also murmurings of a possible red wave for the party and we make it 18/1 that they will secure 55+ Senate seats."

Both the Democrats and Republicans are deploying their big hitters as election campaigning enters its final days.

On Friday former President Barack Obama addressed a Georgia rally in support of Senator Warnock, where he said: "Just about every Republican politician seems obsessed with two things—owning the libs and getting Donald Trump's approval."

Trump is expected to address another four rallies before election day, in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio.

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

About the writer


James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more

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