Former President Barack Obama is set to campaign in Wisconsin on Saturday as polls show Democrats locked in tight Senate and gubernatorial races with less than two weeks until the midterm elections.
Obama will campaign in Milwaukee alongside Governor Tony Evers and Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes in an effort to boost their odds of victory against their GOP opponents in the Midwestern state he easily carried twice. Few states carry the importance of Wisconsin this year, as the Badger State has two battleground races at the top of the ticket.
Democrats hope Obama's visit will convince young people and people of color—two groups key to a winning Democratic coalition—to turn out for them in the polls. Even though President Joe Biden's approval rating has floundered throughout his time in office, Obama remains popular across the country, according to YouGov.
The former president's visit could be especially important in Wisconsin, as he won the state in both his 2008 and 2012 presidential bids before Donald Trump flipped it in 2016. Obama won Wisconsin by 14 percentage points in 2008 and 6 points in 2012. By comparison, Biden won the state by less than a single point in 2020.
Here is what polls say about Democrats' odds of winning key races in Wisconsin ahead of Obama's visit.
Mandela Barnes' Chances of Flipping Wisconsin's Senate Seat
Barnes is challenging Republican Senator Ron Johnson, first elected in 2010, in one of the most closely watched Senate races of the midterms. Polls have found the economy, inflation and abortion rights are the most salient issues for Wisconsin voters. Johnson has faced criticism for controversial statements about the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S Capitol building and the COVID-19 pandemic. Johnson has also attacked Barnes for his support of criminal justice reform policies.
Polls show Johnson as holding a narrow lead against Barnes in one of the races that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate.
A Data for Progress poll conducted from October 14 to 22 among 1,376 likely voters found him with a 5 point lead, winning support from 51 percent of the poll's respondents. Meanwhile, 46 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Barnes. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A CNN poll conducted from October 13 to 17 among 714 likely voters found Johnson winning 50 percent of support, while Barnes received support from 49 percent of respondents. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
In addition, Johnson leads Barnes by 3.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of recent polls.
Barnes spokesperson Maddy McDaniel told Newsweek in a statement that the campaign is "honored" to have Obama join them Saturday.
"As Lt. Governor Barnes campaigns hard across the state, we're honored to welcome President Obama back to Wisconsin to help share Mandela's message of rebuilding the middle class and fighting to represent people that self-serving millionaire Ron Johnson has left behind," McDaniel wrote.
Tony Evers' Chances of Holding Wisconsin's Governorship
Meanwhile, there is no clear favorite in Wisconsin's gubernatorial race, according to recent polls. Evers, first elected in 2018, is defending his seat against Trump-backed Tim Michels.
The Data for Progress poll found Michels with a single-point lead over Evers. However, CNN's poll found Evers with a 2 point lead, suggesting the race is a pure tossup. Evers leads Michels by 0.4 percentage points, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate.
In 2018, Evers defeated former Republican Governor Scott Walker by 1.1 points in the "blue wave" election. Throughout his tenure, Republicans have taken issue with Evers' COVID-19 safety protocols.
Newsweek reached out to the Evers campaign for comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
