Democrat Incumbents in the House Are Most Vulnerable in These 3 States

Republicans are looking to pick up as many seats as they can in the House of Representatives in November—and projections suggest they're not only likely to beat their opponents in districts with an open seat, but they're also likely to do so in three races featuring Democratic incumbents.

Democrats in Arizona, New Jersey and Iowa are at risk of losing their seats to Republican challengers, according to FiveThirtyEight's latest analysis of seats the GOP could flip in the midterm elections.

At the top of the list is Representative Tom Malinowski in New Jersey's 7th District, where the two-term congressman is up against former state Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean Jr., whom Malinowski narrowly beat in 2020. As of Wednesday morning, Kean has a 65 in 100 chance of unseating Malinowski.

Iowa's 3rd District, where Democratic Representative Cindy Axne is facing off against state Senator Zach Nunn, is also a toss-up. Nunn currently has a 53 in 100 chance of defeating Axne, who took office in 2019. Axne is the only Democrat in Iowa's congressional delegation, meaning a loss to Nunn will turn all of the state's House seats red.

Representative Tom O'Halloran's seat is at risk in Arizona's 2nd District. Projections show O'Halloran in a neck-and-neck race against former Navy SEAL Eli Crane, but Crane has the advantage with a 51-in-100 chance of winning.

Malinowski and Axne are running in purple districts, while O'Halloran is running in a conservative-leaning district. O'Halloran, who started his political career as a Republican, became a member of the Democratic Party in 2015 and was elected to Congress in 2017.

FiveThirtyEight's forecast also shows shaky ground for the Democrats in Pennsylvania's 7th District and Kansas's 3rd District, where Republicans respectively have a 48 in 100 and 44 in 100 chances of defeating the incumbent Democrats in the race.

As of Wednesday morning, Republicans have a 7 in 10 chance of flipping the House. The GOP's odds of winning both chambers had been much better at the beginning of the summer but took a nosedive after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. At the end of June, their chances of winning the House were close to 9 in 10.

And although it's likely Democrats will lose control of the House, they're slightly favored to keep the Senate. Wednesday's forecast predicts that Democrats have a 66 in 100 chance of winning the chamber in an incredible turn of events. In June, it was Republicans who led with a 60-in-100 chance of winning.