College-Educated Voters Could Swing the 2024 Election in These Three States

College-educated voters could swing the 2024 presidential election in Joe Biden's favor in key states, experts told Newsweek.

Saturday polling analysis by Real Clear Polling suggests that in November's election, should former President Donald Trump get the Republican nomination, he would recieve 47.3 percent of the vote compared to incumbent Joe Biden, who would receive 43 percent.

Other recent polls have narrower margins. A poll last week for The Economist by YouGov predicted Trump will get 44 percent of the vote to Biden's 43 percent. College-educated voters could give Biden a boost, though, by showing up to the polls in swing states.

College-educated Americans are more likely to vote Democrat than Republican. Fifty-six percent of people who have a college degree or an additional qualification voted Democrat in the 2022 midterms, while 43 percent voted for the Republicans, according to Pew Research Center. In 2020, 31 percent of Trump voters had at least a college degree, while 46 percent of Biden voters did.

People from this demographic vote in high numbers. College graduates made up 39 percent of all voters in 2020 but only 17 percent of nonvoters. Adults with a high school education or less were 29 percent of all voters but half of nonvoters.

However, turnout among eligible college-educated white voters is declining. It dropped from 74 percent in 2018 to just over 69 percent in 2022. Eighteen percent of college-educated 2018 voters did not vote in 2022.

If this demographic votes in higher numbers, then they could tip the balance towards Biden in several states, Jason Opal, a professor of History in the Department of History and Classical Studies at McGill University, told Newsweek.

Specifically, he said an increased turnout in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could help Biden.

In 2020, Biden flipped Georgia from Trump by 11,779 votes—0.24 percent of the 5 million ballots cast. He also flipped Pennsylvania by just 1.2 percent and won Wisconsin by 0.6 percent of the vote.

A number of polls have suggested Trump could win these states in a rematch, with a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from October 22 to November 3 showing him taking the lead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

"There are large numbers of college-educated voters in the greater Atlanta area; if they turn out in large numbers in November, that would help Biden erase Trump's likely big majorities in the rest of Georgia," Opal said.

"The same is true of the urban/suburban areas in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—these voters tend Democratic, especially in a match-up with Trump, who scares lots of moderates, and they could make the difference in those key states."

Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, agreed that college voters are "a key cohort" that could influence the result.

"The 'diploma divide' is arguably the most important ideological gradient in American politics today," Gift told Newsweek. "While increased turnout of any demographic group could swing a close election, college-educated voters will be a key cohort to watch in 2024. Given their more progressive bent, if they fail to turn out in sufficient numbers, that could spell doom for Biden and the Democrats."

An NBC News analysis found that if 100 percent of white college-educated voters had voted in the 2020 election, Biden would have increased his share of the vote with 506 electoral votes and 67.8 percent of major party votes. He actually secured 306 electoral votes and 52.1 percent of major party votes. Under these circumstances, 26 states would have also flipped rather than four.

Joshua Sandman, Professor Emeritus at the University of New Haven, whose work focuses on the appeal of Trump, told Newsweek: "Turnout is crucial to the 2024 presidential election. College-educated, upper-income, big-city, and suburban voters are crucial to building a winning coalition for Biden.

"Voter turnout increases when voters have a greater number of ways in which to cast their ballot. Democrats need to focus on maintaining flexible voting opportunities and bringing out the vote."

However, Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, said many college-educated voters do vote Republican so the college-educated are not the only demographic to consider.

"The likelihood is that the majority of voters with college degrees will break for Biden, but many college-educated voters like Republican policies, particularly around the economy, but also around immigration," he told Newsweek. "They may deplore Trump personally, but like other blocs—evangelical Christians, conservative Latinos and so forth—they'll hold their nose and vote for the candidate they are most likely to align with on policy."

Shanahan added: "But Trump does skew the norms, and if one looks at 2020, a key reason for his defeat was fear among more liberal America. While a major generalization, voters with a college degree are more likely to question candidates' competence rather than simply lap up the rhetoric and may be more focused on policy than on media headlines. So, the key for Democrats with this group, especially in swing states where a few thousand votes each way could determine this election, is two-fold.

"First, give voters something to latch onto. Obama did it with 'Hope' and highlighted healthcare as a key policy issue. Second, create a specific narrative on why this group should vote: counter Trump's retributive manifesto with specifics on how damaging this would be for ordinary Americans."

Another key demographic of voters who could influence the election is Black voters, who are poised to vote for Trump in increasing numbers.

Meanwhile, singer Taylor Swift could likewise shape the political environment this Autumn. Exclusive polling conducted for Newsweek by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that 18 percent of voters say they're "more likely" or "significantly more likely" to vote for a candidate endorsed by Swift.

Young voters, too, are turning away from Biden, NBC News reports, while the President's stance on Israel could cost him re-election, according to an analysis of polls.