China, fresh from the triumph of brokering peace between archenemies Iran and Saudi Arabia, is seeking to cement its dominant role in the Middle East by hosting in Beijing a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran. Chinese ruler Xi Jinping, while in Riyadh last December, first pitched this "unprecedented idea." The meeting will occur sometime this year.
The Saudi kingdom, doing Beijing's bidding, is pressuring the other five GCC member countries to ditch the U.S. and embrace Iran and China. The Biden administration, incredibly, is for the most part acquiescing in China's initiatives.
Analysts, as a result, are now wondering whether America's long-time leading role in the region will come to an end.
Unless President Joe Biden changes course, the U.S. will in fact be boxed out of the Middle East.
"China has emerged as the most important purchaser of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf region and the largest trade partner of most regional states, but this should not be seen as China replacing the U.S. as the most important regional power," Afshin Molavi, senior fellow of the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told Newsweek. "China is the region's most important commercial partner, but the U.S. remains the Gulf Arab states' most important strategic partner."
The Gulf Arab states, as Molavi correctly points out, prefer Washington to Beijing, as they have long been American friends and partners. The Abraham Accords, the work of then-President Donald Trump, aided America's supporters and isolated Iran's regime, which has long considered Israel, most of the Gulf Arab states, and the U.S. as enemies. U.S. ties with the Saudi kingdom were especially warm during Trump's presidency.
President Biden reversed policy, however, embracing Iran and snubbing Saudi Arabia. In the process, he predictably antagonized and angered Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, colloquially known as "MBS," and undid a friendship between the two countries spanning nine decades. The president ultimately had to backtrack, however. Biden visited the kingdom last July, seeking assistance on various issues. The crown prince rejected his requests out-of-hand and across-the-board.
"It was very squirmy to watch Biden, after claiming he would shun MBS because of the (Jamal) Khashoggi murder, go to Saudi on bended knee and be made, as the Chinese say, to 'wear small shoes,'" J Capital Research's Anne Stevenson-Yang told this publication. "MBS now wants to screw Biden, so that is where we are."
The crown prince is now paying Biden back. Saudi Arabia, Jonathan Bass of energy consultant InfraGlobal Partners tells Newsweek, is working in tandem with China to pressure Bahrain and other GCC countries into its camp.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is not doing much to oppose China's moves, even though those moves are aimed directly at the United States.
Why?
First, the Biden team has generally favored China's friend Iran, so Washington believes its interests are consistent in the short term with Chinese policy.
Second, Bass believes Biden has been punishing the Gulf states because of their working closely with the previous administration.
In any event, Biden's change in policy is unnerving U.S. friends. Countries in the Middle East do not plan in four-year increments. Many are working on multi-decade development programs, and they need to be sure of America's direction over the long term. If Washington wants to remain in the region, it must maintain consistent policies from administration to administration.
Xi Jinping, perhaps ruler for life, has no problem with changes of leadership. And now he has a message that leaders in the region like. "Beijing is using its economic leverage to play a role as 'peacemaker,'" Molavi says.
Unfortunately, while Beijing talks peace, it is all-in on troublemaker Iran. China is paying for a tide of weapons that Tehran is funneling to Hezbollah, Hamas, and other destructive actors. At the moment, Bass tells me, China is backing Algeria's Polisario Front, which is attempting to pry phosphate-rich land from American ally Morocco.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, is seizing large quantities of arms, but observers say it is interdicting only 15%-20% of the total. The U.S. Navy has been drawing down its presence in the Middle East and does not have the assets necessary to accomplish the tasks at hand.
With fewer American ships nearby, the ayatollahs of Iran are feeling emboldened. Stevenson-Yang tells Newsweek that China is just fine with that. Beijing, she says, "profits from chaos."
"With Iran, backed by China, on the march, all of the region could become 'Libya,'" Bass says, referring to the destabilized post-Gaddafi state.
So is America's position in the Middle East beyond repair? Not quite.
For one thing, the peace Beijing just brokered between Riyadh and Tehran is fragile and unlikely to last. Iran's regime cannot help itself, and there will almost certainly be more attacks on the Saudi kingdom. Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni states will, therefore, be forced to defend themselves from the Iran's Shi'ite clerical regime. China this month, for all its diplomatic success, did not end the millennia-old feud between the two main branches of Islam.
Moreover, Iran is close to building nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, has recently reported that the regime has enriched uranium to 83.7% purity, close to what is needed for an atomic bomb. China has surreptitiously supported Iran's illegal nuke program for decades, and the Sunni states realize they need a defender of their own.
Riyadh, CNN reported last week, is hoping to obtain from the United States security guarantees and assistance developing a civilian nuclear energy program.
As Molavi points out, most countries in the region still look to the U.S. After all, in the Gulf Arab states, just about nobody really trusts China.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. Follow him on Twitter: @GordonGChang.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
