President Joe Biden has grappled with an economy that saw inflation soar to its highest level in 40 years. But data shows that his often-touted Bidenomics might be working to his advantage, particularly in six states that could go to either Biden or his Republican rival in November.
Although Biden's presidency has been plagued by high inflation, leading some analysts to anticipate a recession, the economy has proved resilient. Inflation has slowed. The unemployment rate at 3.7 percent has dropped to its lowest level in decades and last year the economy grew by 2.5 percent.
On Wednesday, the private sector added more than 100,000 jobs while wages also went up, according to research institute ADP, both slower than in previous months but a signal that the economy was achieving a soft landing. This is the scenario where the Federal Reserve's hiking of rates helped cool inflation without doing too much damage to the economy.
"This economy has softly landed and is relaxing at its destination, with two things happening—slowdown in hiring, but still solid, and wage pressures [are] easing, which also helps the case to keeping inflation under control," ADP's chief economist Nela Richardson told reporters.
The state of the economy has the Biden administration saying that his policies—dubbed Bidenomics—are working. And in those six battleground states, low unemployment, below-average gas prices, and economic growth indicate he might be right.
"The U.S. economy grew 3.1 percent over the past year while adding another 2.7 million jobs, and with core inflation moving back down towards the pre-pandemic benchmark," Biden said last week, referring to growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 to the same time the previous year. "Wages, wealth and employment are higher now than they were before the pandemic. That's good news for American families and American workers. That is three years in a row of growing the economy from the middle out and the bottom up on my watch."
Biden's re-election efforts have been met with skepticism in voter polls, particularly when it comes to the economy.
But the White House said Tuesday the tide is turning after consumer confidence in the economy hit two-year highs.
"With the U.S. economy surpassing all expectations, consumer confidence surged to a two-year high in January—the third monthly increase in a row," National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard said in a statement shared with Newsweek. "Under President Biden's agenda for growth, consumer sentiment is turning the corner—reflecting the increase in wealth, wages and employment relative to pre-pandemic, and the decrease in inflation to two percent over the past half year."
Newsweek contacted Biden's campaign office for comment via email on Tuesday afternoon and will update with any comment they provide.
But how is the economy doing in battleground states? Newsweek looked at unemployment rates, gas prices, inflation and economic growth in six states where experts suggest the outcome of the election will be decided.
Arizona
Inflation in the Phoenix metropolitan area, which includes the cities of Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, declined by nearly a percent in the two months ending in December 2023, and on an annual basis prices accelerated by 2.7 percent. This is lower than the national level where inflation last month came in at 3.4 percent, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the state stood at 4.3 percent in December, slightly lower than right before the pandemic hit in March 2020, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). The state was deeply affected by the economic crisis induced by the pandemic, when unemployment was nearly at 14 percent in April 2020.
Gas prices as of January 30 average at about $3.17 per gallon—a tad higher than the national price which is $3.13, according to AAA.
As for economic growth, Arizona's economy accelerated by 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, matching national growth during the same time span, data from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed.
Though in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll published Wednesday, asking registered voters who they would vote for if the presidential election were that day and Donald Trump and Joe Biden were on the ballot, 47 percent in Arizona said Trump and 44 percent said Biden.
Georgia
The Southern state boasts one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. In December, the jobless print came in at 3.4 percent, lower than before the pandemic, according to FRED, and below the April 2020 figure of more than 12 percent.
On prices, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled by 0.1 percent in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell area of the state, and on a yearly basis registered at 3.6 percent, slightly higher than the national rate, data from BLS showed.
The economy grew by 4.5 percent in the three months through September, according to the Commerce Department, slightly under the national rate of 4.9 percent.
Meanwhile, gas prices are at about $3 per gallon as of January 30, below the national average, according to AAA.
In Georgia, 49 percent of voters told the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll they would choose Trump, while 41 percent went for Biden.
Michigan
The mid-western state's unemployment rate in December came in at 4.3 percent—higher than the pre-pandemic level of 3.7 percent in March 2020 but substantially lower than the April 2020 rate, which was a whopping 22.6 percent, according to FRED data.
Michigan's economy grew by nearly 3 percent in the third quarter but that was lower than the national rate, according to the Commerce Department. Inflation in the state's large metropolitan area of Detroit-Warren-Dearborn was unchanged in the two months leading to December, and on a yearly basis hit 4.5 percent—more than a percent higher than the national print, BLS pointed out.
But gas prices in what is considered to be the heart of America's auto industry are below $3 per gallon as of January 30.
In the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, 47 percent of Michigan voters picked Trump, 42 percent Biden.
Nevada
The state that will host the Super Bowl in February boasts a pretty stable unemployment rate in the mid-5 percent coming out of the pandemic. Famous for its casinos, Nevada's jobs market was crushed by the pandemic when the unemployment rate soared to more than 30 percent, according to FRED data. The current jobless numbers are an improvement even if not quite to the pre-pandemic levels, when they stood at 4.4 percent in February 2020.
The economy in the state grew a robust 6.3 percent in the third quarter, higher than the national expansion of nearly 5 percent during that timespan, according to the Commerce Department.
When it comes to gas prices, the average price of a gallon in Nevada was $3.8, higher than the national average, AAA data showed. Inflation in the region fell 0.1 percent last month, and for the year it read at 3.6 percent, according to BLS.
In Nevada, 48 percent of voters told the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll they would choose Trump, compared with 40 percent for Biden.
Pennsylvania
The state saw its economy grow by a strong 5.6 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the Commerce Department.
The unemployment rate registered at 3.5 percent in December, way below the 16.2 percent it rose to at the height of COVID in April 2020, according to FRED. It was also lower than the pre-pandemic print in March of 2020, when it registered at 4.9 percent.
Inflation as of December in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington area was unchanged in the two months through the end of the year, and on an annual basis it came in at 3.9 percent, slightly higher than the national figure, according to BLS.
Gas, meanwhile, was about $3.35 per gallon, which was a bit higher than the national average, according to AAA.
In the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, 48 percent of Pennsylvania voters said Trump and 45 percent said Biden.
Wisconsin
The jobless rate in Wisconsin was substantially lower than during the pandemic at 3.3 percent in December compared with the 14 percent registered in April 2020, though a tad higher than the pre-pandemic level of just under 3 percent, data from FRED points out.
Inflation for the Midwest region, which also includes Wisconsin, slowed by 0.1 percent last month from November, and on a yearly basis stood at 3.4 percent.
Economic growth accelerated at a 5 percent rate, about the same as the national rate, according to the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, gas in the state is at $2.75 per gallon, data from AAA shows, below the country-wide average.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found in Wisconsin that 49 percent of voters would vote Trump, while 44 percent said Biden.
Economy vs. Immigration
According to Bloomberg, while the economy continued to be the main presidential election issue for voters in the six states plus North Carolina, fewer respondents named it as their top concern than in December. Meanwhile, immigration emerged as the most important issue for a greater number of voters than in previous Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls—and 61% held Biden at least somewhat responsible for the increase in migrants crossing the US-Mexico border.
"As the economy improves and that's less important to voters, there's going to be space for voters to be concerned about other issues," Caroline Bye, vice president of Morning Consult, told Bloomberg. "It's clear from these results that immigration is an important issue. It's an issue that's going to be key to this election. And so far Republicans have been successful in pinning blame on President Biden."
Update 1/31/24, 12:30 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information and comment.
About the writer
Omar Mohammed is a Newsweek reporter based in the Greater Boston area. His focus is reporting on the Economy and ... Read more
