President Joe Biden vowed a response at a time "of our choosing" as he faces a difficult balancing act in how to react to the drone attack that killed three American soldiers.
National Security Council (NSC) spokesman John Kirby said "we are not looking for a war with Iran" but the U.S. blames Tehran for the actions of its allies in Sunday's strike on the Tower 22 installation in northeast Jordan which also injured dozens of personnel.
The U.S. failing to act decisively risks sending a message of weakness that could lead to more attacks. But acting too forcefully could trigger escalation from Iran and its allies amid high regional tensions due to Israel's war on Hamas in Gaza and Houthis in Yemen attacking Red Sea shipping.
Biden's warning "is not meant as a Mafia-style threat," Andrew Borene, executive director at global threat intelligence firm, Flashpoint, told Newsweek. "It is about using a mandate to disrupt and degrade" the capabilities of Iran and its allied groups.
Retaliation will be more comprehensive than the one-off strikes the U.S. has carried out on Iranian-linked targets so far, because "what has been done has not been working," he added. "The ends have to change because this level of violence and global trade disruption and attacks on commercial shipping and civilians has to stop," he said.
Targeting IRGC Facilities in Iraq and Syria
There are many bases, weapons stores and training depots across Iraq and Syria belonging to Tehran-backed militias which are trained, equipped and funded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, although not necessarily directed by them.
So far, precision-guided missile strikes on these bases have failed to deter the militias, which have launched more than 170 attacks on American bases in the region since the start of the war in Gaza after Hamas militants' October 7 attacks in southern Israel.
U.S. officials have said that options include striking Iranian personnel in Syria or Iraq or Iranian naval assets in the Persian Gulf, Politico reported.
"I think the Biden Administration's primary choice will be to target Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces' (IRGC) facilities in Syria and Iraq," said Dennis Fritz, director of the Eisenhower Media Network (EMN) which emphasizes peace and diplomacy in U.S. foreign policy.
But Fritz, a retired command chief master sergeant in the U.S. Air Force, said that such a move could see Iran respond directly "with attacks on American ships and bases in the Middle East that host our personnel" and this could lead to a wider war.
Cyber Attacks
Groups aligned with the Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance have carried out denial-of-service (DDoS) strikes against governments, critical infrastructure providers, and media organizations, which means a U.S. retaliation could have a cyber component, Borene said.
Among the softer measures that the U.S. might look at are more intense financial sanctions directed at Iranian regime members and their families but could also include cyber-attacks or outbound offensive cyber operations. "You don't have to launch a warhead into Iran to disrupt Iranian military capacity," he said.
"The change would also be a shift toward a campaign to degrade and disrupt and ultimately perhaps destroy this network," he added.
Direct Strike on Iran
Retaliatory strikes on the Houthis in Yemen and repositioning U.S. naval assets into threatening positions have so far not deterred Tehran-backed violence, spurring calls in some quarters for more direct retaliation on Iran itself.
"The only thing the Iranian regime understands is force. Until they pay a price with their infrastructure and their personnel, the attacks on U.S. troops will continue," the South Carolina GOP Senator Lindsey Graham said in a post on X. Wesley Clark, retired U.S. general and former NATO commander, posted on X "take out their capabilities and strike hard at the source: Iran."
Borene said that the strike in Jordan on Sunday "opens up a spectrum of activities that thus far probably were not palatable to the American public."
"Striking targets that will effectively degrade and deny Iran's ability to provide further resources to the terrorist groups conducting these types of attacks may call for operations with effects inside of Iran, which carry the risk of moving toward a state of war between Iran and the U.S," he said.
But both Washington and Tehran have insisted they do not want to get into a full-scale war and Tehran could respond by trying to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas flow, delivering a blow to the world economy.
"Limited attacks on targets in Iran would see commensurate Iranian reprisals. So attacks on Iranian Guard facilities or air and naval bases would see return attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria," said EMN associate director, Matthew Hoh.
"The Iranian response to the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani by the U.S. in January 2020 is a good example. Hopefully, that is where it would end," he said
"However, there is the danger of it not ending and an escalating tit-for-tat cycle taking hold—insisted upon by internal U.S. and Iranian political pressures," he added.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more
