Liberals were cheered by the results of Tuesday's vote in Ohio: The defeat of a measure that was widely perceived as intended to make it harder to secure the right to an abortion in the state constitution was a clear victory for them. Along with the results in last year's midterms and elections in Kansas and Wisconsin, the Ohio vote is widely seen as proof that Democrats have found a winning issue.
Seen from this perspective, the U.S. Supreme Court's overturning of the Roe v. Wade precedent last year in the Dobbs case was a gift to Democrats. Anger over the decision helped turn out voters to help Democrats win.
To some extent, this conclusion is inarguable. In the 1970s, Roe fueled outrage that not only created the pro-life movement but also brought to life a broader social conservative bloc that conquered the GOP and helped win them elections for decades. Dobbs could now be having the same effect on the Left.
At the same time, having finally achieved a victory that they worked so hard to achieve for the last half century, Dobbs left the GOP base complacent. Republicans now find themselves outspent and outworked by their opponents.
They're also divided over what their next step should be. Some in the GOP want to work toward complete abortion bans. Others want to set limits on its legality that fall anywhere from six weeks to that of fetal viability outside of the womb. Still others—establishment Republicans who have always only paid lip service to the pro-life cause—would just like to forget about the issue.
That produced the dismal results that have so encouraged Democrats.
But it would be a mistake to jump to the conclusion that abortion will doom the GOP.
It's important to remember that pro-life Republicans had no trouble winning elections since the Dobbs decision was handed down. Pro-life governors like Ohio's own Mike DeWine, who signed a six-week ban in 2019, easily won re-election last year. So did Georgia's Brian Kemp, who signed a six-week heartbeat bill, then won easily over liberal rock star Stacey Abrams in what is now a purple state. Being pro-life didn't stop Florida's Ron DeSantis from winning in a landslide in November 2022.The same applies to Senate races like the one in Ohio where J.D. Vance defeated moderate Democrat Tim Ryan.
That shows that even voters who may support legal abortion are still prepared, as they always have been in the past dating back to Ronald Reagan, to elect pro-life Republicans if they think they are the better candidate.
But the euphoria on the Left ignores the fact that Republicans can win even when abortion is the main issue so long as they are able to frame it in a way that accurately depicts what Democrats want.
It's true that surveys show that only a minority of Americans want abortion completely banned. But the most recent Gallup tracking polls shows that a majority—51 percent—believe it should be legal under only certain circumstances. The percentage of voters who think it should be legal right up to the moment of birth is only 34 percent. And that is exactly the extreme position that most Democrats have embraced, including the ones who will be at the top of their ticket next year President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
So long as the argument is one about whether abortion should be completely banned, the issue will help Democrats. But when the conversation focuses on passing restrictions on abortion like the need to obtain parental consent for minors, pro-lifers will win.
Most of all, Republicans need to stop listening to their tired, D.C. establishment leadership on this issue (as they should on most others). Those who flee from the debate about abortion are bound to be hurt by it, but those who are prepared to fight for the value of human life and for restrictions on the killing of unborn humans that are embraced by most Americans should have no fear of such a discussion. If that's the course set by Republicans in 2024, Democrats will be reminded, as was the case before Dobbs, that abortion extremism remains deeply unpopular with the majority of voters.
Jonathan S. Tobin is editor-in-chief of JNS.org and a columnist for Newsweek. Follow him on X at: @jonathans_tobin.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
